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Flemington - Caulfield - Moonee Valley - Sandown - Rosehill - Randwick - Warwick Farm- Canterbury - Eagle Farm - Doomben - Morphetville - Cheltenham

 

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 1st September

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

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Two very good fillies clash in the first Extension of Time and Catalan Bay. At this stage they look the winning chances. Catalan Bay looks a horse that as the distances increase the harder she will be to beat. She showed flexibility in her last performance by riding the speed and putting the pressure on the backmarkers. A similar run is visible here given that she has drawn three. Likely to use that, kick up and take advantage of being the first set of hoofs to hit the Caulfield turf. No setbacks you would imagine from Markdel where Lee Freedman has been able to fully operate during the EI restrictions. I suggest to back this one in the first. Extension of Time looks awfully dangerous but will need an enormous performance to get past the Bay I envisage. She's second best...looked great at the Valley first up. Then Beaming Bella. Had no luck at Seymour when racing on the rail midfield, she crept foward into a handy spot before being forced backwards at a critical stage with traffic was taking her nowhere in front. Showed great tenacity under hard riding thereafter, might be able to use Catalan Bay on the inside as she will likely sought them out up on top of the speed. Worth a place bet and third best in this.

Race 2 :

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Crummy race this. Hard to trust some of these, but then again stayers returning tend not to win these types of events. On that basis hedging my thoughts around Savlate, Spielmeister and Party Pie. As far as winning is concerned this is about as strong as most of these want it, and they are unlikely to get an easier chance all Spring to hit the board on a Saturday meeting. Savlate fires fresh and is very useful on top of the ground, Spielmeister likes Caulfield and should be thereabouts in this and Party Pie has had a run under it's belt and is looking to build on what it showed last campaign after coming off an injury. Suggest to fix yourself some lunch while watching this taking note of the runs.

Race 3 :

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Watch for the speculators in this. On paper this looks to be a no pace sit and sprint affair likely to favour those who are ready to sit on the speed first up and have enough to kick away. On that score and where Lanborghini has drawn it looks dangerous in this field. Has a winning record generally and over this journey, I suggest if their is any keen support for it to follow because this race is made to order for it. Next best I have Sirmione who continues to develop, has had a winter in Brisbane which will be of assistance and has performed at this track before. Look for it running into out wide. Seafarer made a reasonable Melbourne debut at Sandown, looks set here to get a better run in the race and the extra distance suits. She is one to definitely include then Scenic Shot. Temple Hills is the other one to consider...he's not one of mine however.

Race 4 :

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Stick with Blue Grouse in this. Went with her last start and suggesting to stick with her. Should ride the speed again from ten, or be thereabouts. Clear galloping room is the key to her. Had a few come back on her run last start thwarting her winning chances, when she got momentum up again she finished like a train for third. Caulfield 1600m looks very suitable can see her winning this. Giving little chances then to Desert Move, Kalashani Star, Siesta Park, then Shuaily. She along with Desert Move are the most interesting runners and there movements will be keenly watched. Some may see the move of Holland riding Shualily as a positive lead,true, however she has to overcome a poor first up record, and a big weight on a small horse is never a profitable proposition. Happy to see her and back Blue Grouse eachway.

 

Race 5:

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Dane Empire, Rubiscent, The Fuzz are the ones to study here and perhaps Red Lord is the smoky as he looks the kind of horse who will perform well at Caulfield. Dane Empire was great last start and should be able to control this one out in front. While this looks a touch harder he's in this right up to his ears and will prove very hard to beat. Rubiscent again has drawn low and will be hoping for similar miracles to emerge like last start, needs to get rolling early to win so is a risk on that count. The Fuzz came back ok, not much was expected there looking for something a little more in this but uncertain if he can win. I think the two I will be focusing on are Dane Empire and Red Lord with smaller chances given to Rubiscent and The Fuzz. In Rubiscent's favour is that Dane Empire should bring horses racing on the rail into the race, so on the score you can entertain it. Thinking the winner is in this four so work your bets around these. Red Lord's my top rater from Dane Empire, The Fuzz and Rubiscent.

 

Race 6 :

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Very competitive race the sixth. Royal Asscher was merciless first up at Caulfield. Attacked the line with real power...she looks back. I fancy she will win this, but there are some good ones to test her. Bantry Bay , La Goule and Downhill Racer are the threats. Bantry Bay kept improving last campaign many of his wins were better than they looked, La Goule looks a professional little race-horse and looks one definitely to put in all multiples...place bet looks a requirement on her. Downhill Racer is the other one . She's very game and honest though and if they go mad out in front she could beat them all. That said, I still think Royal Asscher is the one here, was enormous last start and is proven at this track before.

Race 7:

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Pins On Parade what a weapon this is. Looks a great race this, it Shrwed Rhythm and Heart look the main hopes. I think Pins On Parade shows the elements of a potential star, his manners will be the only thing that stands in the way between him and victory. At Bendigo on debut he awas very well behaved forced to race wide and won by 2 lengths, last start he fired up a little but was still too strong on the line. Shrewd Rhythm is a very good horse and commands respect will be right there. Heart is definitely capable of finishing in the first three, definitely include him in your multiples. His Sandown wins rated very high.

Race 8:

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Zupaone to win the Memsie. This horse had to battle with many injuries early in it's career and only then showed glimpes of his best. Now he's on the verge of stardom with a brutal win last start in Adelaide after rattling home first up with no luck. Has a fitness edge on these and looks a very strong chance of taking this, I think he can. El Segundo, Tipungwuiti and Haradasun look the next best. El Segundo returned well but it looks a task from winning from barrier 12. History tells us that every time it has taken the long way home in it's races it has been found out in recent times, that's a trend likely to stand in the way again between it and victory. Tipungwuti I rate but I think still needs luck to beat these. He should have been beaten in Adelaide against Skiddaw Peak and Surfside Christmas and had that 2000m race at Rosehill handed to it. I think he's good but not ready to get carried away with him. Haradasun is a very good horse, and could win this race. That's not good enough for me to put him on tip but still wary of him.

Race 9:

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Like Gold Edition to win the McEwan. Not super confident and unlikley to take the short odds but she is the top rater nonetheless. Here De Angels is a very smart juvenile will be trained up for this and is the hardest to beat... Ticklish is third best.

Race 10:

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The key to this race looks the barrier draws. Those drawn low will force themselves to race handy while those drawn out deep get back anyway and will be forced to race from well back. That said I think those on the speed have a slight advantage, so I'm looking at horses Muzdaher ,Orange County and Megadeal, while thinking Wonderful World is the blow-out. Muzdaher will push up from the inside and will be in the leading trio with Typhoon Zed if it runs, Megadeal and Orange County just off them. Like Muzdaher again, don't think there is much between it and Orange County but just give him a slight edge on toughness. Raced deep last start, steadied then kicked away to win easily at the Valley. I won't go through all the reasons why he was unlucky before that run...needless to say he was due. Think he can on with it and beat Orange County. He raced well last start in group company, just beaten by a better horse. Will strip fitter here, will get a good run in transit and looks hard to beat. Megadeal needs to be watched fresh. She is most handy fresh, with an inside run at Caulfield and with no weight. She could be the suprise, while Wonderful World has the ability to knock off all of these. Just going for Muzdaher over the Cummings horse as it is fully fit and the other one is likely to give at a six length start at the turn.

Race 11:

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Fidemus, Mrs Waters, River Fairy should ensure a good speed in the last and therefore horses from anywhere should be able to get up. The three most likely in my book are Soaressa Lady Lisbon and Maslins Beach. Soaressa's only appearance at Caulfield before was a very strong win over La Chassuese. I was taken with that run, and if she is fit and ready to go for this, as you would expect I think she can win. Her biggest dangers I believe are other horses who will be strong on the line. Lady Lisbon is just the horse and perhaps ran close to a career run last start despite finishing out of the placings. She lacked luck there but looked extra strong on the line. I think she can take a step here and be a dominant player. Maslins Beach I see as third best. Like the wintering in Brisbane, can see that producing a foward display in this, will get a chance to show off her talent and for mine third best in this.

 

 

 

Tim's Top Raters

Race
Horse
1
Catalan Bay
2
Savlate
3
Lanborghini
4
Blue Grouse
5
Red Lord
6
Royal Asscher
7
Pins On Parade
8
Zupaone
9
Gold Edition
10
Muzdaher
11
Soaressa

 

Catalan Bay and Pins On Parade are best bets.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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