Horse Racing Analysis

Caulfield

Exclusive Report 10th October

Race 1:

1. King Pulse

2. Beyond Pardon

3. Trounce

*King Pulse dominated at Geelong. Ridden positively out of the gates, looking for a similar scenario to have it forward and out of trouble. Cornered and was carrying momentum into the straight at Geelong, I liked that given that it's running at Caulfield here (need to be able to corner well). And then opened up like an exceptional horse. Ran serious time, second quicker than the other maiden winner of the day, and she appears in this race, and two seconds faster than the 0-62 for the day. Track will be a dead 4 for the first, as they always prepare it that way, exact same track he raced on at Geelong. I don't rate the opposition strong. He's a best bet. As per email yesterday, take anything $3 plus as early as possible.

Race 2 :

1. Maxisun

2. Romneya

3. Philda

4. By The Way

They've backed Maxisun here and with good reason, toughed it out strong in a good race last start after being trapped deep all the way. Romneya, 1400m Caulfield is her go, touch of edge off the track will help her. Philda next best flying at the moment. Then By the Way. Big win last start right in this.

Race 3:

1. Avenue

2. Tale of Love

3. Rostova

Avenue is the top rater. Speared away last start. Probably had favours, but has looked good in all runs, and will be on the speed and hard to beat again. Tale of Love will be the one I will looking at the value. Wasn't flash first up but that race wasn't suitable for her. Hot speed, with a run for fitness, up to 1200m on a track she runs well at, can use the four barrier, huge odds, recommend a place bet in this, and perhaps a little on the win. Liked Rostova's run last start she can run well in this.

Race 4 :

1. Paprika

2. Morgan Dollar

3. Wilander

I'm going to back three horses straighout looking for a profit around the 3-1 mark. Wilander(12-1 plus, Morgan Dollar (9-1), and Paprika (6-1) are my ingredients. Paprika is my top rater. Sent down here thinking she might get a soft field, and while it doesn't look that soft on paper, 1000m has to be a query for Apache Cat, and Lucky Secret has drawn off the track in a race of alot of speed, and the track may be too firm for him. So I'm happy to attack it with the three above. Paprika was a star in Brisbane in early career, showing good speed in her races, and finishing off her races with class. Was there to be beaten in the Magic Millions, wide all the way. Backed solidly early, following the money. Morgan Dollar next best. Has a pattern of running bold races fresh then trailing off, but perhaps with age and maturity you can get more out of him. Because it looked that way last start, running a brilliant second to Nicconi. Matches that run and would be very hard to beat here. Over's then with this form of betting. Wilander will get out in the market, 12-1 at present, might get even better. Burnt early last start, copped interference, saves his best second up. Drawn a brilliant barrier, and he might be a "Spring" horse.

Race 5:

1. Whobegotyou

2. Heart Of Dreams

3. Douro Valley

This is probably a watch race. Heart of Dreams is my favourite horse not sure it gets 2000m but would hate to bet against it. Rate Whobegotyou on top to win. Better prepared to win this race, better track will be his advantage. Heart of Dreams second best from Douro Valley.

Race 6 :

1. Raffaello

2. Black Piranha

3. Gold Salute

4. Allez Wonder

Raffaello, barrier one is a sticking point, but if he finds a path he will be very hard to beat in this race. Jumping better in his races, and while he won't use the barrier, he won't be last inside all things considered. I rate Raffaello and Black Piranha a little in front of the pack here. Raffaello is going better than ever, and will win if gets a decent run. Black Piranha continues to run great races, raced everywhere and continues to perform well. Drawn the best of the class runners too. Gold Salute next best. Big run last start, goes better on top of the ground and has won at 1600m all key points. Allez Wonder next best. Fires on firm ground, so defied that last start winning on soft ground, all her runs this time in point to her running well in this. Over the odds, and drawn a good barrier

Race 7:

1. So You Think

2. Extra Zero

3. Trusting/Denman

*So You Think is an exceptional horse and we need to play here, especially given current market odds. On debut raced four wide no cover, around a tight track and Rosehill, and won running away. Had 1600m plus written all over it then. Turned out and set for a 3yo campaign. Jumped well in the Ming Dynasty sat behind them, wasn't asked for an effort until up the rise and then powered to the line, looking far superior there to More Than Great. You can draw a line through More Than Great and Denman last start. While Denman beat it was hardly pulling away from it on the line. I was very keen about So You Think as a racehorse, but didn't really want to touch it rail out, drawn wide at Rosehill. Defied that like a really good horse. Bowman made a run on it early to get a position. They went quite slow and the leaders were advantaged, I like the way So You Think took off on the corner there, (good sign for what he will need to do at Caulfield). Powered around the corner at speed, made a number of runs in the straight, sign of a really good horse and was running away. Gathering franked that form running a strong second last start. Bart's put the blinkers on, has gone for one of the best Melbourne-based jockey's in Michael Rodd, races at Caulfield 1600m which I think will really suit. The sticking point of course is the barrier. There are four natural go foward runners in this, Carrara, Star Spangled Banner, Manhattan Rain and Nicastro from nine. You would think Nicastro would be ridden by his normal pattern forward, I'm sure they couldn't believe they could win this from the back. What this creates is an opportunity for a horse to go forward behind them and get cover. So You Think is capable of doing this. I think with 400m to the corner, Rodd will at least have a look at going forward and slotting in behind them, given the wide barrier, knowing that he can make an early run on the horse. Worst case scenario he will drift back and sit outside Trusting who will be near last, and have Denman to take him in the race. Would love to see him take the race and slot in behind them, but still think we are a chance ridden cold (there will be some pressure in this), and importantly he can improve on the corner, a factor that I think is against Trusting. Obviously if SYT drew a barrier I would be having more on, but even with the unknown of the wide draw at the price we can play here. Take the 8.50 at the moment, I suspect he will be backed and he is starting to be. That's just the wrong price for this horse.

Extra Zero second best, drawn a great gate in five, was all over Carrara last start 1600m, what I liked about the run was the way he got around the Valley, good sign for getting around Caulfield. He will be overs for the place, worth having a little place bet on. Trusting and Denman I rate as next best together. Trusting has a super finish on him, but was ridden well last start and got around very sluggishly around Caulfield's final corner. Can't win from back here unless you sling shot of the corner. Denman I have a very slight query on the 1600m. That's the only query, and I prefer So You Think's preparation.

Race 8:

1. Shocking

2. Precedence

3. Hissing Sid

4. Alcopop

5. Capecover

6. Young Centaur

7. Sand Hawk

This is a race of many chances and I think you need to bat pretty deep if playing the quaddie. The fact that there are some nice strong speed horses in the race, gives heart for a few runners in this chiefly Shocking and Precedence. Shocking gets all the ticks, strong speed, right track, good barrier, good track. The issue with Shocking is how is he going and that flat spot that he shows in his races. Two starts ago it was excused, last start it was there, was it the track that stopped him going through his gears, because Alcopop left him for dead when the heat went on. It's a worry and we'll find out here. I think he's probably worth a little eachway. Precedence is the sleeper in this race, he's a talented stayer, and has matured this campaign. $3 plus the place would appeal for him. He will appreciate a good speed and has run well 2400m here in the past. Should be able to run on this track, rail true. Hissing Sid next best, outperformed Speed Gifted from the back last start, he's gone on better things. Good speed, 2400m, inside barrier he is going to be hard to beat. Alcopop was an excellent display last start and out of Jeune should go on top of the ground no problems. Capecover finished as good as possible last start, some chance. Young Centaur and Sand Hawk are not hopeless.

Race 9:

1. Our Lona

2. Champagne Harmony

3. Rose Syrah

4. Russeting

Like this race think we can play. Our Lona E/w. Quinellas and Trifecta's built around Our Lona, Champagne Harmony, Rose Syrah, Russeting in that order. You could back the first two, save with the next two as a strategy. Champagne Harmony needs a firm surface to do that. Our Lona hit the line great last start, and has performed well in Stakes grade 1200m before. Gets all the favours from barrier six, with lots of speed out wide, should be the one coming into the race from midfield. Champagne Harmony, next best, Rodd on, that's a length, firm track that's an extra two lengths could get quite firm by this time in the day, has been backed early. Rose Syrah couldn't go quick enough on that shocking track first up. Will go better here, barrier two is a concern, but to good to leave out. Russeting class horse, might well be Bart's Day.