Racing Analysis

Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 15th September

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

I like two in the first Catalan Bay and Bammagera, with Gran Sasso next best. Catalan Bay was subject to an awful ride on a slow speed last start at Caulfield. She has drawn wide here and that's probably a good thing shouldn't get trapped like last time. The longer they go the better she'll be and she is already shown alot. Forget the last run, and know that Corey Brown is riding to secure an Oaks ride here. This should result in it getting every chance. Perhaps not totally suited by the Valley but don't let that deter you. Bammagera is next best. Excellent win at Bendigo, I rated it high. Looks an improver and should be running into this from the back. The next best maybe Gran Sasso the likely leader. Was very good last start when led all the way and really was doing it easily...might suprise a few of the city slickers here.

Race 2 :

Looks like their should be enough speed to ensure if you are coming off the pace you can figure prominently. Miss Mooney Mooney, Tango's Amigo will press on from out deep, Sunshine Power will try and hold a spot so the speed should be ok. I think I'd be backing Craig Newitt to give Soaressa the right run from two. Though she got a mile back last start, she doesn't necessarily have to come from so far back. She can race better than midfield and with some good horses to bring her into the race I think she can improve on that encouraging fourth first up and win this. I think Tango's Amigo can be the hardest to beat if she finds her best form. Looks like getting the nice cart behind Miss Moonee Moonee in the run. Sunshine Power I rate, I expect her to go well with a run under her belt, third best in this.

Race 3 :

This is weak enough race for some of the older handicappers to dominate. Was That You, Dismissal and Snappy Tom all fit that category. Was That You will be big odds and perhaps rightly so but if he's anywhere near his best though he will smoke these. That said he might be worth a small ticket each-way. Dismissal blew up on a hot speed last start, looked in need of that. Expect a much more advanced performance and looks hard to beat. Snappy Tom I thought was very impressive in strong company after showing some career best form going in. He's the most reliable of the three but is likely to be well supported.

Race 4 :

Snowfield Lady, Little Arrow, Gladwell, Bel Mer, and Arcadia. Five very strong chances in this one. I think Little Arrow will most likely use the inside barrier over Gladwell and Bel Mer. I think Newitt will take the sit on Bel Mer today, and I think the Hayes camp will be encouraged with Gladwell's new dimension of coming off the speed. So I see Little Arrow and Antartic Miss taking it up. This gives all a chance except Snowfield Lady who will find it difficult to win from well back on the rail. Little Arrow clearly had it over Gladwell last campaign and ran a terrific race in Adelaide went asked to race deep all the way. Interesting to see how he rides it, not a huge fan of the jockey. But will tip it on top, just ahead of Arcadia who has the equal if not more ability than Little Arrow shown on the provincials recently. Then Gladwell.

Race 5:

Top Tier, Dracs Back and Shadowmaker look the ones in the sprint. Top Tier is a push button sprinter and should be in this along way. Shadowmaker could cause damage here. Won a similar event last year with a cold win, this track and distance. Keep him in your thoughts. The other one is Dracs Back. Might be brought on slow not because of injury but just because he wintered in Brisbane and Darren Weir has always taken a conservative approach. Started to show enormous ability before a strange effort in the Doomben Cup. Capable of blowing all these away. Expecting one of these to win, settling on Dracs Back.

Check out Pre-Post DaneHill, Maykbe Diva Stks & Caulfield/Melbourne Cup betting below

Race 6 :

El Segundo is going to be desperately hard to beat in the Dato Tan Chin Nam. As mentioned before he can sprint off very little momentum and not spending a penny in the run might see another Segundo win. His runs at the Valley are all good. It looks like Haradasun, Cinque Cento and perhaps Tipungwuti will all be in front of him so he had alot of good horses to bring him into the race. Look for Luke Nolen to stalk all those and dive through a gap at the top of the straight and be too good. That's how I see it. Haradasun will be hard to beat. Excellent run last time, likely to go perhaps even better here. Won't need to be hussled along like last start. Efficient, Lad of The Manor and Tipingwuti are next best.

Race 7:

The Manikato Stakes. The two most important intrinsic things we know are that Gold Edition will either want the lead, or serve it up to whoever leads, she will run it hard. And secondly, Mind Your Head even if it misses the start will work along with it's high cruising speed bringing anything that gets on his back into the race. Monet Rules will come over from twelve, and Universal Queen should get a very good run midfield off the rail. I think Monet Rules and U.Queen will be good enough to go with Gold Edition if it tries to get away, with Mind Your Head putting pressure on if possible. This leaves it open for a horse to be set to the outside off the pace to power over the top. Enter Vormista. Vormista to win this, has a big finish this horse. Forget last run missed the start caught on the rails, good effort to run second. Now I'm hoping the jockey Shayne Cahill learnt his lesson from the Monash Stks when he drove this horse into the backsides of many up the straight. This is layed on for you like a platter, just sit back pull deep and we'll get the cash. 26-1 put up by Sportsbet...taken! In a high quality race this is an opportunity at those odds to have a lash eachway. There's alot of good ones here, no superstars she's as good as them, and it should run to suit as outlined. I think Here De Angels will run a big race, likely to take the sit on Gold Edition and be produced. Freedman has invested time into him and looks like its paid dividends. I like Universal Queen for third. She will improve of that first run.

Race 8:

Seriously anything could win this. The horse with the best chance of figuring in the first three ...Evilweb and that's why she is the top rater. She will find it hard to win this but will be right there whatever happens from a favourable draw in nine. Perhaps a good place bet on Evilweb could be considered. Other horses to look at these numbers 3,6,7,11,12,14.

Race 9:

Three strong chances in the last. Sirmione the obvious, great run last start after doing everything right in Brisbane. Luke Nolen to ride, should get every chance to win this one. Mojo Pin, the punters went to early on him, always races better with a run under it's belt and goes quite well at the Valley. Came along really well last campaign expecting him to go right on with it, and might be an opportunity here while some people still quering the last run. Soulacraix set the world on fire briefly in Melbourne before doing nothing in Group one company in Sydney. His runs were to bad to be true. I think you can have a little trust in him knowing how well he performed at the Valley fresh, and on his Melbourne leg before. Put him in all multiple betting.

Tim's Top Raters

Just the one best bet Vormista in the Manikato. Hope you have a winning week. Congratulations to one of our members Domenic with his horse Moment of Truth who creamed them at Mornington today. Looks a very likely type, one to follow for all.