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Moonee Valley

Exclusive Report 11th August

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Form Guides (RSB)

Race 1:

Won't be guessing in the first, as it's hard to line-up the Hayes horses with a few of the proven Victorian ones. Of the Vic's Uptown Lass I think has a slight edge. Brazon Hussey will likely jump and run and that should suit Uptown Lass. However good the invaders are... Uptown Lass will ensure a competition is on. Excellent run here last month when travelled deep and still pulled away for an easy win. This obviously is tougher but hasn't been slaughtered in the weights so every chance with her each way. Perhaps a good place bet is the way to go to get things rolling in front. Brazon Hussey I'm nominating as hardest to beat, ran well in a black type race before an encouraging first up showing. Setting first pair of hoofs down on this surface is bound to be an advantage so she'll be hard to beat. Next best is Murjana a black type winner in Adelaide. If it's very good it will win this, Uptown Lass is no superstar. Then Extension of Time...has form around Ehor and that's only fair .

 

Race 2 :

Wahy looks the one in this. Taken to the outside at Sale and got his confidence up there with a commanding win. Before that drew poorly. Has shown form on top of the ground, and a liking for a late charge at the Valley. All roads lead to Wahy in this. Hardest to beat is difficult to assess but going with Lil Orpen Annie. Craig Newitt has stuck with her after her last start win that's a good enough sign for me to believe she is a chance in this. And perhaps Kinugawa can run another cheeky race, held on well behind the impressive Pit Lane and there was a fair gap to the next over the line. Before that was a six length winner. Expected to be thereabouts again. Happy to take on Laspiel in this as I didn't think much of it's last start run at the Valley.

 

Race 3 :

This is an interesting race where the amount of speed will determine this one. If they go mad out in front Zupaone might get the breaks it needs to win from barrier two. If it's a medium speed however which is how I see it, a win will be a much more difficult task for it. I think there is an each-way special here...Muzdaher. Has had a little freshen from a brief winter campaign but I expect it to be right up to the mark for this. The inside barrier has cost it the last two times it has stepped out; bad luck firstly, then an inferior inside surface in it's latest outing. Here it can make it's own luck from out wide, and after the scratchings it can't be too wide in the run. They will go stupid over Zupaone in this (if it runs as it's nominated in Adelaide) because it was unlucky in Adelaide. I know I was on it. Likely to start around even money...it needs to be 3.20+ for me to be tempted. Go with Muzdaher in this, seriously good each way bet will definitely start 5.00 or better. Zupoane second best, then Magistra Delecta.

Race 4 :

Empire Dancer looks the top rater in this. Great run last start in open company and should have finished closer as it had it's momentum quelled at an important stage. Has form over this distance and on top of the ground. Some reasonable ones in this, but this is definitely the top rater. Without much confidence going for the other two mares in form Brolago and El Milagro. Brolago has been a revelation, not sure about it on this tight track as it's been racing well on bigger tracks but it's going so well you need to put her in somewhere. Then El Milagro, has always shown a little bit and really delivered last start. A fair amount to like about her, in that it's a mare in form, likes the track and is expected to get this distance.

 

Race 5 :

With nothing between many of these in my opinion weights has to be the deciding factor on who you put your money on. And Grand Destiny with the lightest weight wins that equation. Has been running really well of late, despite finding one or two better than it recently. But I can see it winning this in an attrition. It was unlucky behind Archie Junior a few starts ago when didn't get a clear crack at them, before running on well behind Thisonesonme. Will get back but will steam home. Baughurst is the toughest to beat. Should have beaten Ista Kareem last start, bar for running into a traffic jam at a crucial stage. Gives every impression that it will get the 2500m, given that it sprints home hard over 2040m. Definitely the hardest to beat, back them both for a sure result. Next best is Bugatti Royale. Just nailed last start, before being too tough at Sandown. Can see him again being around the mark and he is third best. Ista Kareem next best but just suspect he's not any better than these to justify backing him with the 58kg.

 

 

 

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Race 6 :

Who will run, who do you back in the Aurie's Star. El Segundo is under a cloud with a foot problem which should be noted. Orange County is the one that will attract most interest, and importantly it will need to use the two barrier. Without a huge quantity of speed there's an opportunity here to push up into a spot, and that being the case I think he can be too good for them. Hardest to beat is Monet Rules. This horse has really lifted and showed a disdain for Open Company last time at the Valley. Deserves a crack at better opposition and will make it a race. El Segundo next best, it only needs to be on three legs to be competitive in this so don't completely dismiss him. Then Jennings, excellent first up win, this harder but still fresh enough to show her best.

Race 7:

The Fuzz will be the buzz horse in this. He was lethargic on debut and did his best work when running in a straight line, just enough little queries to make it second pick in this around the tight turning Valley first up over 1600m. Going with Cefalu. Terrific win over this course and distance last time he stepped out at the Valley. This is not overly strong, expect him to be even a little more wound up for this I think he might be the better betting proposition. Then Incentate. Terrific runs recently, last start got caught three wide the entire and only went under a length. Would have been the top rater, but that run last start might have taken the edge off him slightly and therefore is only third best.

 

Race 8:

Sefrah to win the last! This horse should have won the lead up to the Oaks behind Amitola. Not too concerned it didn't do much in Adelaide over 1300m. It really needs 1600m to show anything. But don't underestimate her in this, this is not strong and the Hayes team will be looking for something from her, perhaps ready to win something listed early in the Spring to be launched into the bigger races. That will be the plan. All that considered it will be ready to do something in this. Forgiving Molly's Folly and respecting Electric Puha's recent form as her main dangers.

 

Check out Pre-Post San Domenico & Aurie Star betting below

 

 

Tim's Top Raters

Race
Horse
1
Uptown Lass
2
Wahy
3
Muzdaher
4
Empire Dancer
5
Grand Destiny
6
Orange County
7
Cefalu
8
Sefrah

 

Muzdaher is the only best bet, likely to get each-way odds and that's what we like to see with such honest commodities such as Muzdaher.

Best of Luck,

Cheers Tim.


 

 

 

 

 

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